Commentary by Jen Alic for ISN Security Watch (24/10/06)
Islamist forces and Somali interim government troops said to be backed by the Ethiopian military have reportedly taken up defensive positions around the town of Bur Haqaba, sparking concerns of a region-wide war that could see Ethiopian rival Eritrea come to the military aid of the Islamists.
Pro-Islamist fighters in Somalia on Tuesday retook the town of Bur Haqaba without firing a single shot, only a day after interim government and Ethiopian forces took control of the town, according to Reuters, which cited local residents.
Reuters quoted witnesses as saying that Ethiopian troops had begun digging trenches around the town, which is some 30 kilometers from the interim government's hold of Baidoa.
The standoff comes a week before the interim government and Islamists - who now control most of central and southern Somalia - are scheduled to hold peace talks in Sudan. It is unclear what consequences the latest developments will have for the 30 October talks.
Somalia has been in a state of near anarchy since 1991, when warlords overthrew dictator Mohammed Siad Barre and then began fighting among themselves for control of various areas and resources. In 2004, the UN assisted with the formation of an interim government - a feeble body that has been unable to restore order and was forced to flee from the capital, Mogadishu, to Baidoa, near the Ethiopian border. In June, Islamist militias took over Mogadishu, forcing the allegedly US-backed warlords underground and installing some form of order in the capital.
Ethiopia, which has consistently denied military involvement in Somalia beyond "training" interim government troops, is concerned about having a fundamentalist state on its border.
Observers are concerned that if Ethiopia is battling Islamist forces alongside government troops, Eritrea, Ethiopia's main rival, would come to the military aid of the Islamists and spark a region-wide war. Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a border war that ended in 2000. Eritrea is believed to be providing arms to the Islamists in Somalia.
The Islamist forces, while now largely in control of most of the country, would not be able to sustain a war against Ethiopian troops, and if the standoff is not resolved during 30 October talks, Somalia is likely to turn into the next battle ground for Ethiopia and Eritrea.
In the meantime, it is unclear just how much control the Islamist leaders have over their own courts.
The Consultative Council of Islamic Courts (CCIC) - a sort of coalition of sharia courts representing different districts and sub-clans - have their own militias, some of which the leaders have managed to organize successfully into a main command force, but it is unclear who will be victorious in the end, the moderate court forces or the jihadists.
Somalia is home to a more tolerant form of Sufi Islam, and most the Islamic courts appear to be fairly moderate, though a few could be said have jihadist leanings. While many accounts of life in the capital say that things have improved since Islamists took over -the airport and harbor have been reopened, someone appears to be cleaning the streets, prices of consumer goods are falling, kidnappings and murders have lessened - there are some causes for concern.
Very troubling were the recent murders in Mogadishu of a Swedish journalist and an Italian nun.
Even the key Islamist court leaders - both moderate and hardline - seem unsure as to the extent of control they wield over jihadist forces within the courts.
The key players at this point appear to be Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, a moderate in the CCIC, and Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, a hardliner who appears on US and UN terror blacklists. Another key player appears to be Aden Hashi Farah Ayro, who is said to be leading the jihadist forces and also thought to have been involved in the murder of foreign aid workers and Somali activists.
According to the Economist magazine, Ayro belongs to the same sub-clan as Aweys, but that does not necessarily make them strong allies, and there are indications that Aweys would like to, but may not be capable of, reining in Ayro.
Unless this third round of peace talks next week produces some results, war seems inevitable, and many observers agree that the Islamists could not hold out. According to the daily, The East African, the Islamists will have to defend themselves on four sides with only one well-armed and experienced unit, the Shabab (Youth), and its some 2,000 fighters. The rest have less experience and are perhaps not as committed to the CCIC's cause as the Islamists would like, the daily said.
While the CCIC may understand that it could not sustain a war on four fronts and therefore may choose to negotiate with the interim government, successful talks on 30 October are likely only to postpone a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea in Somalia.
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Jen Alic is the editor in chief of ISN Security Watch.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).
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